DOLLAR COURSE. FORECAST FOR 2024
👁 1539
Exchange rate fluctuations can be influenced by many factors, and it is often psychological that prevails, when during crisis phenomena people buy as much currency as possible, hoping to later resell it at a higher rate, and thus find themselves in the "plus". However, such actions are precisely the "pressure" on this course. As mentioned above, the budget for 2023 included a forecast exchange rate of UAH 42.2/dollar, and by the end of the year it should be UAH 45.8/dollar. Leading economists also predicted an exchange rate of more than 40 hryvnias per unit of American currency. At the same time, the hryvnia ends the year with an official (as of the last days) exchange rate of approximately UAH 37.5/dollar, while the cash exchange rate for the population is currently hovering around UAH 38/dollar. Therefore, the results of the year turned out to be more optimistic than all expectations. However, after the abolition of the fixed exchange rate, a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia over the next year is quite possible. The course will traditionally depend on the balance of demand and supply for the currency, as well as on the stability of the receipt of international financial aid, which is currently in question. The hryvnia is likely to weaken within 12 months. The most probable is the adjustment of the foreign currency exchange rate by 10-15% according to the basic development scenarios. The most powerful risk is the suspension of external financial support of Ukraine, which may subsequently increase the pressure on the hryvnia. In the budget for 2024, officials set a forecast exchange rate of UAH 40.7/dollar. Analysts predict that under the conditions of sufficient financing from Western partners, the likely exchange rate of the dollar in 2024 will be in the range of 39-42 hryvnias per dollar
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